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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.